Interview by Yasser Nazifi Gilavan

British Professor: President Trump in Trouble to Win Re-Election

Sunday, August 2, 2020 - 09:55

Professor Scott Lucas, who teaches American Studies at the University of Birmingham, believes US President Donald Trump is facing an uphill struggle to win a second term in the White House.

Considering the current disastrous economic situation of the US, the nationwide discontent with his approach to COVID-19 pandemic and the Americans’ uprising against the systematic racial discrimination against black people and other minority groups in the US, Trump will have a much narrower chance to win the upcoming November race for the oval office, said Professor Lucas in an exclusive interview with the ISCA News on Saturday.

Here comes the full text of his interview:

Q: President Donald Trump benefited from the mechanism of the Electoral College to win the 2016 race. Will he again have the same advantage in 2020? What would be his chance in the coming November if it was held with direct voting and without the mechanism of the Electoral College?

A: Trump would be in even more trouble if the President was elected by direct vote, rather than through the Electoral College. (In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by about 3 million ballots, but Trump's narrow win in key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin put him in the White House.

However, the combination of the Coronavirus death toll, the economic downturn and the issues raised by Black Lives Matter marches have changed the political atmosphere in 2020.

Q: Will US foreign policy take a U-turn in its direction, if Joe Biden wins the election in November?

A: US foreign policy will be significantly different if Joe Biden is President, not in policy but in execution. Currently, there are two foreign policies: that of US institutions and system, and that of a Trump driven almost solely by his ego. Biden's pragmatic approach, and his decades of experience, returns US policy to 2017.

Q: What will be US' China policy to contain the out-of-control rise of the Red Dragon, if Trump wins re-election? What if Biden wins?

A: This will include a pragmatic approach to China, akin to the "competitive cooperation" before Trump came into office. A Biden Presidency will look to mutual economic benefit, rather than trade war. However, it will also have to decide whether to engage the issues of internal repression and crackdown, from more than 1 million Uighur Muslims in re-education camps to the security state imposed in Hong Kong.

Q: Will Biden end US support for Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the war in Yemen if he wins? What will he do to address the issue of Palestine?

A: Under Biden, the US emphasis on Yemen will shift towards an effort to de-escalate and end the civil war with all external actors --- Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran among them --- encouraged to step back from the conflict.

On Palestine, there will be a shift back from Trump's all-out pro-Israel stance, though a restart of negotiations will not be possible under the current Israeli domestic situation.

Q: Will immigrants suffer more, if Trump wins re-election?

A: On US domestic issues, Biden will end the harsh anti-immigration approach of Trump and his advisors like Stephen Miller. There will be an attempt to establish a durable immigration system balancing citizenship for young Dreamer immigrants, a humanitarian approach to new migrants, and a sensible border security.

Q: Why is Trump against ban on assault weapons? Does it have to do anything with his election campaign supporters? What do you think about his campaign finance?

A: And it might be possible, after decades, for the US Government to finally approach the issue of gun control --- although this will depend on how large a majority Democrats can claim in both houses of Congress.

Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies, is a specialist in US and British foreign policy. His research interests also cover current international affairs, especially North Africa; the Middle East and Iran; New Media; and Intelligence Services.

He is the founder and editor of EA WorldView, one of the leading news and analysis sites on US foreign policy and international affairs, especially in the Middle East. EA WorldView is now established as a day-to-day leader in coverage of conflict, sitting alongside- and sometimes ahead of- CNN, BBC and Al Jazeera.

Scott is a frequent contributor to American, British, and international media. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the Centre for American Studies and Research at American University Beirut and he has been Adjunct Professor of the Institute for North American and European Studies at the University of Tehran.

Scott has recently completed two edited books on US foreign policy and power - The Trials of Public Diplomacy (with Ali Fisher) and The Limits on US Power (with Bevan Sewell). Complementing his work as an electronic journalist and analyst as well as an academic, he is now beginning work on a book on how media such as online social networking sites are reshaping foreign policy and international affairs.


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